Index Drops to Lowest Level Since February 2021 as Expectations Continue to Decline
NEW YORK, June 28, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in June, following a decline in May. The Index fell to 98.7 (1985=100)—down 4.5 points from 103.2 in May—and now stands at its lowest level since February 2021 (Index, 95.2). The Present Situation Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions—declined marginally to 147.1 from 147.4 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—decreased sharply to 66.4 from 73.7 and is at its lowest level since March 2013 (Index, 63.7).
"Consumer confidence fell for a second consecutive month in June," said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. "While the Present Situation Index was relatively unchanged, the Expectations Index continued its recent downward trajectory—falling to its lowest point in nearly a decade. Consumers' grimmer outlook was driven by increasing concerns about inflation, in particular rising gas and food prices. Expectations have now fallen well below a reading of 80, suggesting weaker growth in the second half of 2022 as well as growing risk of recession by yearend."
"Purchasing intentions for cars, homes, and major appliances held relatively steady—but intentions have cooled since the start of the year and this trend is likely to continue as the Fed aggressively raises interest rates to tame inflation. Meanwhile, vacation plans softened further as rising prices took their toll. Looking ahead over the next six months, consumer spending and economic growth are likely to continue facing strong headwinds from further inflation and rate hikes."
Consumers' appraisal of current business conditions was less favorable in June.
- 19.6% of consumers said business conditions were "good," down slightly from 19.8%.
- 23.0% of consumers said business conditions were "bad," up from 21.7%.
Consumers' assessment of the labor market was mixed.
- 51.3% of consumers said jobs were "plentiful," down from 51.9%.
- Conversely, 11.6% of consumers said jobs were "hard to get," down from 12.4%.
Expectations Six Months Hence
Consumers grew more pessimistic about the short-term business conditions outlook in June.
- 14.7% of consumers expect business conditions will improve, down from 16.4%.
- 29.5% expect business conditions to worsen, up from 26.4%.
Consumers were more pessimistic about the short-term labor market outlook.
- 16.3% of consumers expect more jobs to be available, down from 17.5%.
- 22.0% anticipate fewer jobs, up from 19.5%.
Consumers were also more pessimistic about their short-term financial prospects.
- 15.9% of consumers expect their incomes to increase, down from 17.9%.
- 15.2% expect their incomes will decrease, up from 14.5%.
The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on an online sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Toluna, a technology company that delivers real-time consumer insights and market research through its innovative technology, expertise, and panel of over 36 million consumers. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was June 22.
Source: June 2022 Consumer Confidence Survey®
The Conference Board
The Conference Board publishes the Consumer Confidence Index® at 10 a.m. ET on the last Tuesday of every month. Subscription information and the technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerdata.cfm.
About The Conference Board
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